Ante Post Cheltenham Markets

Very popular, much maligned and long overdue, first blog of 2014 will preview a few ante post suggestions for the cheltenham festival, given now that paddy powers are non runner no bet on a number of the festival championship races….. 

supreme novice hurdle

i am of the opinion from what i have seen thus far, the form of last years champion bumper hasnt been overly impressive, 4 of the first 6 home were british, with irish trained briar hill a clear cut winner, connections have indicated he wont be supreme bound. the liquidator one i took out of the bumper last year and duly obliged at punchestown was thumped today in tolworth at kempton, now that said I wouldnt discount pipe getting a horse right day of cheltenham festival, as history suggests otherwise, but what i do think is that the irish novices are much stronger then the british ones this season. There were 3 horses I was bullish about this time last year for the bumper union dues, purple bay & faustine rustico. Now whilst I do still feel strongly about the former and latter neither have done anything thus far this season to suggest they should be top of anyones ante post list, that said union dues at 25/1 is value, purple bay is not for me and i feel like all dom alco progeny, mr rustico will be better waited with as a punting proposition until he jumps the big ones….

So what of this years irish horses that we have seen? the tullow tank is plenty short enough at 10/1 for what he has achieved thus far, by the same token same applies for moyle park… but one that really has caught my eye and has been something of a talking horse is gigginstown exciting french bred, valseur lido, trained by a certain wp mullins, he is sure to be half the price on the day should he go to post for supreme. He has raced on mostly soft to heavy ground and wont get anything like that in prestbury park but I do feel he could well be the one that jumps off, the price at 16s & the fact willie knows what it takes to win a race of this nature as champagne fever hacked up in this last year…

arkle trophy

i am going to follow a tried and trusted route here, last time a did such a route was with sizing europe…. basically a horse that competed at the highest level over timber, has bags of pace and stays further then 2 miles…..so the champion hurdle ideally is my first port of call and the answer is simple, even though he broke my heart and daily withdrawal limit last year, the answer lies with “winless over fences and he couldnt jump a hurdle last year at the festival” nicky henderson trained Grandouet…. yep i said it. A broken clock is right twice a day & a blind pig can smell a truffle…. Blind faith i suppose i just think the stats point one way, albeit the facts point another…. stats are he was the highest rated of all the arkle entry novice chasers over hurdles, his chelt form is 3-1-2-F nicky henderson has trained the previous two winners of this race by way of simonsig & sprinter sacre. Facts are he was going to win the champion hurdle last year bar he fell. I am convinced of this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlqZJkwWNHs last years champion, he would have finished at least second, i argue hurricane wouldnt have passed him had he gotten first run…..

This beggars the question why not go back to try win it? well he still holds a champion hurdle entry and his start over fences has been less then pleasing UR-2-2 with a litany of jumping errors to boot. But he is trained in 7 barrows by henderson and lest i say something i shouldnt here, he will be spot on for 2.05pm tuesday 11march 2014. Grandouet is 16/1 for the arkle it is his only festival entry of note champion is just if things go totally tits up in his prep. he will be half the price on the day should he make it there and i am telling you for fact he wont be outside the first three.

 

Tuesday day 1 ante post selections:

supreme valseur lido 16/1 outside bet union dues 25/1

arkle grandouet 16/1 outside bet trifolium 20/1

Kerry Dublin 1st of September

The Kingdom and the Dubs, heffo and micko, mikey sheehys goal, the great paudi with his gloves hanging out of the arse of his shorts, the bomber liston, age old footage of kevin moran, the “heaving” hill, culchies vs the dubs,country vs city… bla bla bla…. what does it matter for sunday? sweet fanny adams.

I was confident Tyrone would run mayo close for a long way last sunday and really test their metal… for 35 mins i was dead right, but a combination of mayo finding an extra gear or tyrone not getting out of first meant mayo blew the doors off and are the stand out team of the champ so far…. but have they been tested yet? for me nope, the beat a lack lustre donegal side who won a bad all ireland last year…. many say mayos name is on the trophy ala donegal last year but im not so convinced and i think this sundays game in croker will really raise the bar perhaps one too far for mayo….

like mayo, dublin have really blown the doors off this year, conquering all and sundry in their path… the form team along with mayo, they obliterated westmeath, meath & kildare… then had their only genuine test against the most regressive football team in ireland, cork and got through…. but that performance was not that of an all ireland winners in waiting…. what dublin will turn up on sunday? It will have to be their best performance to date imo opinion… a big talking team that hasnt delivered the goods for me yet… a misfiring brogan, a wishy washy diarmuid connolly, im not sold on that ciaran kilkenny either… lastly the spoofers midfield…. athletes yes, footballers no. herein lies the kernal of the issue. mayo have o se, dublin have who? michael dara mccauley?

kerry on the other hand, have imo the best midfield pairing in ireland and i have been waxing lyrical about them all year, anthony maher (potential footballer of the year) and johnny buckley, a little green at times in the tackle but like this kerry outfit is coming to a nice boil at the right time of the year, crept in under the radar in true “cute hoor” kerry tradition…. i would have a slight reservation over kerrys full back line but those fears can be abated given the form of the dubs inside line. i feel kerry will boss the middle of the park for 3/4 of the game and if the right supply gets into messrs. sullivans x2 and o donoghue then dublin will be rightly for it…. donnacha walsh and particuarly paul galvin will get through a world of graft for the kingdom, galvin is due a big game, being truthful he has been kerrys worst player this season, the boys midfield are more then capable of ghosting in for 2-3 scores buckley in particular… and oh yea kerry have some lad called cooper playing centre forward meant to be handy enough….

i like handicapping horses and races, i would rate dublin as potential improvers but i feel this is as good as they are this year they have beaten nothing of significance in the scheme of all ireland winning, kerry are well handicapped on old form they have dynamite forwards with a few men on redemption missions (o ses x2, galvin, brosnan etc.) they dont need to show sparkling form in the championship they know how to “get one ready at home as they say in horse racing”

i feel there is a serious sting in the kerry tail and i think they could blow the championship wide open come sunday…. they have done enough and done enough and now they are in under the radar “horse of troy” style, ill just say this if i was a dublin man i wouldnt want to be lining out against some of these men, i feel it could be like general custers last stand for some of them, whether its good enough to beat mayo i dont know, but i think they will take the dubs scalp sunday…. kerry dont do marchs or mays or even julys or augusts, they do septembers, lots of them…. as my dad says you know the farmers are happy when they arent complaining, ditto you know kerry are quietly confident when you hear nothing…

the old horse for the long road and much is made of the saying form is temporary class is permanent as mike frank russell recently showed some young upstart how to play football in a recent kerry championship game – you either have it or you dont – cant think of the young lads name, last time he was seen was calling in sick of a monday and swinging out of some free bar in the clubhouse after winning some mid season game – but its an appropriate yardstick to use for this when deciphering this dublin kerry game….

i fancy kerry 23/10 is decent, but like kerry im purring and confident kerry by 1-3 pts is 5/1 worth a nice touch…. ill also go kerry ht ft @11/2 and lastly dec o sull first, anytime goal 9/1 & 16/5 & also for motm 16/1

sure to be a cracker anyways… over and out! thesaturdayman

GAA facts for the coming season…

So the ould national hunt Gee Gees are winding up for the time being and im not overly keen on the flat… i think dawn approach will win the derby given how well he won the guineas and his fastest furlong was the last so that suggests he stays but the value bet in the derby is 5/1 on telescope with a run… his form is absolutely rock solid and in extremely good hands…. ew a bet a free bet with money back for 2nd & 3rd….

couple of bets i like ante post for the coming championship… galway to win the connaught championship 9/2 is an outstanding price… i think they will go dam close to winning it this year… load of reasons partially due to them being buoyed by their u21 successes of the previous two years but i think they have a right opportunity to take mayos scalp this weekend who are minus a few players and have to go to salthill. On form which there is little to go recently but Mayo got a thumping in semi final of div1 league from dublin, whereas galway failed to qualify from division two…. but the old adage is championship is in the summer and its all about getting it right then…. galway were quite experimental in some quarters during the league but have gotten reportedly their strongest midfield pairing since the heady days of late 90s early 00s…. Mayo are over reliant on man mountain aiden o shea here, a fine footballer and absolute beast but he isnt very mobile…. so this tips the scales in galways favour here who have youth, hunger, home advantage etc all in their favour…also in the last ten years galway have only lost  3 times to mayo twice by less then one point so fear factor doesnt exist. in my opinion this should be 10/11 the pair and 7/1 the draw… give or take… so galway a huge price at 2/1 given mayo will be missing two all stars… this will be tight enough too so expect a low scoring encounter….

 

armagh finished a full division ahead of cavan 6th in division two vs 5th in division 3 but it could have been so different losing by a pt two eventual div 2 champs westmeath and by two points they also went down to a resurgent louth… they are well able to score and are playing a more open brand of football… i fully expect them to beat cavan at a generous 4/7 but i would also expect them to beat a 2 point handicap @11/8 is also good value… total points scored market should be interesting too as i would expect this to be a much more open game then galway mayo… 

so to conclude i anticipate galway to win 2/1 & armagh -2 at 11/8 2 x 2 points on galway, 1.5 on armagh and a .5 point double!

 

westmeath -4 @8/11 is worth including in weekend multiples too… should be well within their compass to cover that unless they have regressed which i sincerely doubt….

 

thats all for now! good luck

Cheltenham Day 4

Frustration day again today only bets of note that paid out were tartak & shakervilz bostons angel paid his way too! i can confirm i most definitely didnt retire after today bookies gone ahead of me now, but fear not i have been saving the ammunition until friday….

r1

jcb no major fancy here but ill go with the john quinn trained pair of kashmir peak & hidden justice quinn sprung countrywide flame on us last year and the likelyhood is one of these will be primed for a decent run

r2

cotton mill, ifnotandbutwhy & il fenomeno are well handicapped is punjabi all 4 will be in the placepot with the first and third horses being backed at ew prices

r3

utope des bordes catches the eye getting 7lbs has been nicely placed thus far and goes in somewhat “under the radar” at fishers cross should give mccoy and mcmanus a chance to get one on the board….

r4

long run each way, you wont and cant go wrong. he will give you a run for your money….its a weak renewal and he brings the strongest grade 1 form into the race in my opinion, he is slightly exposed to potential improvers by way of sdc & silvinico conti im telling ye now that bobs worth wont be winning this he is a grinder not a classy sort the form of the hennessy was weak too this year so he will not be winning

r5 foxhunters

here we go! chapoturgeon a steering job…. finnegan is beating the war drum here GO TO WAR!!!!! load up on this lad each way to be sure but imo he has a stone on some of these lads…. should literally be a steering job….. should be about 4s r 5s

r6 martin pipe

putting up 3 here, brigids pet, village vic & ma filleiule… this gevrey champertain is meant to be a steering job mind according to that gowl of a mark chapman but the first 3 named carry the famous finnegan stone tomorrow!

r7 johnny henderson

last year i literally “got out” on bellvano 20/1 master class from carberry and stroke pulled by henderson and jp….. could lightening strike twice kid cassidy? i believe it can…. but is it too obvious? 3 of the top 4 weights are henderson trained so he is obviously getting them in to give others weight…. kid cassidy is one, tetlami the other maybe and finally not original but ulick du lin walsh and nicholls?

 

thats all from me best of luck in whatever ye go with tomorrow….!

Cheltenham Day Three

Tough day wednesday, tough day…. made it to the last leg of placepot but was ultimately mowed down in the bloody fred winter! bumper was a disappointment too…. it just shows you, you think you know something or try to factor in anything and the if i said willie mullins & ruby would have the last winner of the day in the wylie silks, you would say  go way finnegan boy stop tipping favs…. 25/1 briar hill as i said you think you might know something or reckon something really most of us know fcuk all!!

medinas was a nice touch had a decent 5r on him at 46.0 on betfair the same horse was 28/1 with paddy powers….. anyone backing any kind of horse should be on betfair, especially on outsiders! that was my only winner wednesday, but thankfully it was enough to yield a profit on the days investments and put me marginally ahead overall…. placepot paid a tidy 343 for a euro too…. so that is the way to bet at cheltenham…..

couple of things have struck me as we are over the half way stage, no winner for jp, no winner for michael o leary, no winner for dickie johnson & no winner for david pipe or paul nicholls….. thus far its been a mullins benefit gig…. cant continue can it??? i have factored in a bit of the above into my selections for thursday but being honest thursday is as equally a tough gig as wednesday… thankfully i have seen the back of the fred winter handicap for another 12 months!

race 1 jewson novice

must be dynaste here? they dodged the rsa to plant him in here… cant really see past him maybe third intention for placepot and each way purposes.. dynaste a winning proposition for me…..

race 2 pertemps final 

sam winner could be absolutely thrown in here offa 140, considering in his youth he thumped grandouet by 15 lengths giving him weight! he has had obvious problems an aversion to jumping fences being one… i really like catch me too and he could be a monstrous price too but for the purposes of the placepot they are kinda men u need to be placing…. ill put up two more here as good ew propositions and prices bakbenschar & bouglar at big prices too be the 4 for me, prob wont back sam winner though as huge value online on the exchanges

race 3 the ryanair

menorah for me here, he could really be a nice tonic at a respectable price and is my ew bet here and if there is 8 runners ill bank him in the ppot but if there is only the 7 runners for non stop could be the 2nd man to trouble the selection….

world hurdle r4

oscar whisky is a worthy fav here but there is value elsewhere partiuclarly with former champion hurdle runner up peddlers cross a decent ew price at 10/1 he would be my selection here…. if he is anything to where he was a while ago he will be hard beat and might i add he is a tad unlucky since he went over fences bumping into sprinter sacre then not firing… so if things had have been different he may well have been in champion chase or the gold cup…. i think if he is back to his best then he wins. simple. if he is 3/4 the horse he will place….. being a ptp winner he will stay 3miles too.

r5 byrne group hcap

divers catches the eye at a decent price previous course and distance and more importantly festival winner he will get some support, fingeronthepulse remains well handicapped too the same applies to tartak & poquelin… all at monster prices but previous festival form counts for a lot in my book

race 6 kim muir

3 again for me here at decent prices katie walsh a previous winner at the festival teaming up with the pipes off feather weight on hat-trick seaking no secrets remains one that is almost certainly of interest 12/1 decent ew price the same comment applies to the john joe o neill trained galaxy rock owned by a same man as china rock and sadlers rock… this lad is a multiple course winner and is possibly handicapped to his best but the master of jackdaws castle is a man to be feared in the long distance handicaps…. last one ill put up will be harry the viking just touched off in the 4m nh chase here last year he is on a same mark when sent off 6/1 fav for 102k scottish grand national as an 8 yo i reckon the hcapper hasnt got a grip of him yet and the drying ground should suit as he doesnt fancy a slog… all three decent prices and should run their races

race 7 x country

please consult previous blog on day 1, still with bostons angel & shakervilz with a small word too for sacree tiepy all decent prices and you will get 4 places in most bookmakers id expect 1r2 of them to be fighting out the finish

best of luck! ruby is home and hosed now in jockeys title

r1 dynaste, third intention
r2 sam winner, bakbenschar, bouglar,catch me
r3 menorah
r4 peddlers cross
r5 divers, fingeronthepulse, poquelin & tartak
r6 galaxy rock, no secrets & harry the viking

96 place pot legs x 50 cent & 12 x €1 quadpot legs

Cheltenham 2013 – Day 2

Righto, day one over… after 11 months of waiting i now know the following, willie mullins really is one of the top top trainers going performances of quevega and hurricane fly were really outstanding yesterday even though i am speaking out of my pocket when i say it wasnt the result I wanted but bloody hell any sports man can appreciate a champion and those are two champion animals, trained by a champion trainer and the jockey well ruby as we all know, knows where the jam stick is around prestbury park but he gave an exhibition yesterday on champagne fever….

anyways, an in and out day for me, blistering start with champagne fever, simonsig & baily green going in…. think that may have been it for the blog then had a nice bet on the plogreaneau horse in the mares race ew my hcappers i selected were poor, tour des champs travelled imperiously well before flattening out… the one that sickened me most was grandouet. i know for a fact he would have at least finished second, infact i am still certain he would have passed the fly going over the last and worst case scenario given him something to think about and if he had jousted the rail from him i think geraghty would have given him “the treatment” to get him home…. anyway can do nothing more now then pontificate and lick my wounds…. a decent day but not a brilliant day from a financial perspective but an enjoyable day none the less!

wednesday dour affair imo – i will preview with a view to a placepot style bet again few i will mention generally looking for about a 24-32 leg ppot so could be 2-3 selections in some races again if thats not your thing, go look in a press as there plenty other mugs in there. im in the business of making money and as my p & l on betfair suggests im not bad at it!!

r1 lord oaksey nh chase 4miler

tough nut to crack this race… ill make no bones about that…. amateur riders so you need the decent jockeys with C & D experience on your side… without even looking they would be nico de bonville & steven clements in the uk with nina carberry, derek o connor, jj codd & jt mcnamara the jocks you want on your side over here…. horses i have fancied for this for a while include tofino bay, rival destruval, hawkes point & whatever david pipe runs…

so that leaves me with tofino bay, hawkes point, godsmejudge, rival destruval & buddy bolero….

ill put up three, hawkes point + tofino bay with a strong preference for rival destruval who stays longer then the mother in law!

neptune novice hurdle r2

well we all know i like to talk, but the biggest talking horse of cheltenham is point alexandre… meant to be a “penalty kick” according to all sources and notably willie mullins! for ppot purposes he must be in it…. the other one im going to put up is two rockers for alan king… decent trainer around here with an above avr strike rate…. 12/1 ew proposition….

r3 rsa chase

i like two here goulannes for the pipes (unbeaten thus far) & houblon des obeaux whom i have put up on around here numerous times…. he smacks of a cheltenham horse…. 6/1 & 11/1 respectively…. both decent ew value against walsh and mullins

r4 queen mother

obviously there is a word for some horse called sprinter sacre but im going to take him on with my ould mucker sizing europe greatest horse to ever come out of waterford (including dawn run) he is a backable ew price and will run his race. never out of the top 2 over fences and if there is a chink in sacres armour sizing should be able to expose it and make him work for the greatness…. COME ON SIZING!!!!!

r5 coral cup

christ here we go…. minefield…. ill put up three but you can make a case for almost any…..! the pipes and mcmanus horses merit respect….

sadlers risk,medinas & urbain de sivola are my selections at huge prices 20/1,20/1& 25/1

hollow tree could also be one at a price too ya know just caught my eye there…  @ 25s

r6 fred winter juvenile hcap

it isnt easy today and this race certainly is a minefield too….. process isnt the most meticulous either mind…. megapolys, mcvicar & ruacana all ew and for placepot but can i just say this is my most hated race at cheltenham it has more pot holes in it then the back road to callaghan…. forget trying to get rich here just get over the race the above three should yield some sort of return…..

r7 champion bumper

another minefield which is very hard to catch the winner in….

i personally really fancy union dues, have been waiting for him to run since he won his bumper in killarney and actually saw him as a 2yo and 3yo when he stayed on a farm not too far from home, i was told then he could be special so i hope tomorrow he will show his true ability

purple bay & faustino rustico could be something at a price too…. but sher look today and particularly the last few races arent about getting rich, you would want your head examined if you think its possible… sit and wait play the long game….

geraghty could be worth a punt for top jockey too at the moment 7/4

best of luck gents

cheltenham 2013 day 1

right havent the time or energy to give a huge amount of detail into each explanation of each choice/decision. most of my work has been done at this stage and it is cheltenham after all so there are big field and plenty of big prices and value about… so in most instances and particularly the handicaps there are a couple of selections… if you dont like more then one horse in a race then stop reading now. you are not being made read this so simply put up and shut up my opinion which i am entitled to….

supreme novice hurdle
my tent or yours is too short and powers always want to get the fav beaten in this but they avoided it this year, it is meant to be a penalty kick on numbers but i still reckon there is value elsewhere the english guys are fairly exposed against the fav so from an irish point of view un atout & champagne fever appeal at about 7s and would be my selections for the placepot… 12 of the last 14 winners of supreme novice have all won last time out here. so that means jezki, un atout, champagne fever & mtoy one of these will almost certainly win this… value lies with the two above named more so then the fav

the arkle
simonsig must be the closest thing to a “good thing” here imo… henderson said he has the pace to run in the champion hurdle only he has too many darts to throw at that board… he is officially rated 9lbs worse off then sprinter sacre was this time last year and geraghty himself couldnt split them now! so he probably has another few lengths up his sleeve that we havent even seen yet! he is a penalty kick here, if he stands up he wins. of the others baily green could run well at a big price for shrewd connections….

JLT specialty chase
the next race holds an entry of no less then 9 horses i have backed this year at varying stages and prices… they are namely in card order midnight chase, planet of sound, fruity o rooney, the package, hey big spender, knockara beau, tour des champs, loch ba & our mick…

i can make cases for almost all of them but i will eliminate knockara beau, hey big spender, our mick & loch ba initially i think the first three are well within grips of hcapper at the moment and loch ba jumped with scant regard for his fences last time out…

midnight chase went off as short as 12/1 for the gold cup last year, this is a significant drop in class and merits maximum respect if he brings his A game tomorrow. 9 runs around cheltenham his record reads 5 wins, 1 second, 1 third, 1 4th & a 7th (in the gold cup) he has lowered the colours of tidal bay last year (who was some what progressive at the time and he was giving him 6lbs), tidal bay has since franked the form a number of times.

fruity o rooney, the package & our mick all ran in this race last year and were 2nd 3rd & 4th respectively, the marks are all similiar to last year but the ground will be softer… so i think it will suit some young and perhaps improving horse or something that is obviously well treated…. for the time being i will draw a line through these…. even though a couple of them should run very well….

that leaves me with a certain tour des champs & planet of sound one whos curve is on the up, the other who is well in on relative old form…. three for me for the ppot midnight chase, planet of sound & tour des champs 20/1,33/1 & 33/1 respectively….

champion hurdle

this is easy grandouet is way way way overpriced at 17/2 have what you want on him each way he wont be outside the first three…. that as they say is a fact…. 4 runs around chelt record is 2 wins, 1 2nd 1 3rd in 2 g1s and 2 g2s… i think he will probably win but definitely place…. hurricane fly is a danger but if its a strong pace which i expect it will be possibly set by grandouet then he wont be for stopping…. i am almost certain that barring a topple he will place

x country chase…

tough one…. my two big fancies dont run due to ground…. so im going to nail up two maybe three for placepot purposes…. bostons angel is well in still and 8s is good value & im between shakervillz and sacree tiepy preference for the former rather then the totally unknown french quantity….

mares hurdle…

could today be the day quevega gets done? i think it just might you know…. i saw her the weekend work after racing and like most mares around ireland on a sunday i thought she had a few kebabs too many the night before! plenty of “condition” so im going to plum for something fit and at a price or in this case two of them…. i have backed swing bowler at 33s already for this and is a bit of value still at 8s and 9s so thats one ill put up for the ppot & then ill try find one at a decent price…une artist is the obvious danger for msrs munir and geraghty but i actually like the cut of the progressive prima porta @ 40/1…. i think it could be better then it suggests and looks to be over priced here….

rewards for racing (formerly byrne group plate)

forgotten gold and vulcanite are MASSIVELY overpriced 20/1 & 25/1 and are good each way value here…. i cant get away from colour squadron though but is it too obvious? first time in a hcap and its at the chelt festival…. but i smell jp trickery here ala bellvano and alfie sherrin last year and i think vulcanite could be the one you know? ill put up a 3rd one too for pig iron, carlito brigante is well treated but is a bit obvious too…. so ill plum with my third selection as arthurs pass at a tasty 14/1 with light weight jockey liam heard doing 10stone 5 for the shrewd tom george….

so to conclude selections
r1 champagne fever 8/1 and un atout 11/2
r2 simonsig 4/6 and baily green 25/1
r3 midnight chase 20/1, planet of sound 33/1 and tour des champs 33/1
r4 grandouet 8/1
r5 bostons angel 8/1 and shakervilz 20/1
r6 forgotten gold 20/1, vulcanite 25/1 and arthurs pass 14/1

“boxing day and beyond”

righto…. no beer christmas eve… clear head, clear thoughts…. time to make some cash…

first port of call. the king george. so in order to evaluate possible contenders lets see what it takes to win it and in doing so kauto star needs to be yardstick… won 5 in total.

Going back to 2008 there was a 10 second difference between the feltham novice chase won by breedsbreeze and the king george by kauto star. king george being run quicker over same course distance and going.

in 2009 there was 8.3 seconds in the difference between the feltham winner long run and then king george winner by a distance of 36 lengths kauto star (arguably his greatest ever performance) king george run faster

in 2010 the weather fcuked it up on us…

in 2011 now here is the curious part, the difference between the times king george 7 ran TIME 6m 5.00s & the feltham novice chase 6 ran TIME 6m 2.20s (slow by 4.20s), was 2 -3 seconds with Grand crus running the C & D faster then the trained to the minute kauto star. he also defeated silviniaco conti & bobs worth subsequent Betfair chase & hennessy winners. Also after that defeat silviniaco went to the aintree festival and demolised champion court by 13lengths in the g2 chase, and most recently long run at haydock who was a never neared 2.5 lengths. Bobs worth after the 6 legnth thumping he took boxing day last year went on to defeat first lieutenant no less at cheltenham at level weights by 2.5 lengths and again in the hennessy by 8.5 lengths whilst giving him a pound. With tidal bay 3 lengths back in third getting 6lbs.

So on all known form Grand crus has something in hand over these at level weights, but he is under a bit of a cloud. A below par performance at cheltenham last year a dismal 4th of 9 and almost 6 weeks ago sent off the shortest price of all for a Paddy Power gold cup hcap (7/4fav) now last year he scoped badly after the RSA & since the paddy power he has had a breathing operation (generally improves them 4-5lbs) bear in mind that al ferof was the “talking horse” after the paddy power. So had grand crus expected market confidence where would we be now? he has also ran this course and distance faster then the actual winner as a novice. David and Martin pipe acknowledge he is the “best horse we have ever trained” & lastly as a line of form the highest rated horse in training is big bucks of the last how long? god knows but grand crus got the closest anyone did to him since april 2008 when he went down an unlucky 1.75 lengths in the world hurdle as a 5 yo. i know i was on him “big style” that day.

in terms of breeding, i love the sire dom alco now dead at 23, his offspring include neptune collonges, al ferof, silviniaco conti, sire collonges, unioniste, new alco & turban – who holds 4 entries in beginnner chases over christmas and will win wherever he runs. dom alcos love to get their toes in and it is sure to be soft at kempton given all the rain falling recently.

Grand crus is 8/1 if he is anything like the grand crus i know he will not be beaten here. if he is 3/4 of the horse he was this time last year he will be in the first three. my horns are out and im ready to charge at this one ew at 8/1 os free money.

the christmas hurdle, im between two darlan obviously and cinders and ashes equally as obvious. ew bet will go on cinders as he will be placed for sure even though i hate the sire beat hollow. 4/1 is too big for the supreme novice hurdler in any race and certainly is here. i reckon the horse that beats him will win it if he doesnt himself. so a nice ew bet on him…

the handicap hurdle in the last at kempton should be meat and drink for saint roque… grove pride should also go well at a decent price in the first race too…. id anticipate at 10/1 or more…

the 3.20 at fontwell sees miss fleur a tricky customer at the best of times but this is a piss poor race and she won here on stephens day last year in the same race…. so should go close in my book…

down royal and the shark hanlon goes a long way with viking splash for the opening hunter chase again a good ew price

ffos los whisper wins the first for henderson and tinkler, carruthers also takes a huge drop in class and should be good enough to do it off top weight….

at limerick fahamore catches the eye, winner on the card last year…generally weak looking hcap with a few exposed sorts in their….

lep – born in fire is very interesting on his point form but the fact davy pegs it to limerick suggest there are better opportunities there notably in the first race! anonis in the novice hurdle looks like a decent betting proposition… stocktons wing a possible ew selection in the juvenile hurdle… bit wishy washy selection though…. i like the look of force of habit in the hcap hurdle mind you…. dont know what if any price it will be…. sammy black also perhaps at a price in the same race depending on prices too… on the way out in the handicap chase looks to have a bit in hand over fences compared to his actual mark so a good ew bet on him… old kilcash could be anything in the bumper too….

that is it…. my head is wrecked now from thinking about it! we will let the horses do the talking on stephens day! good luck and have a happy christmas!

An Epiphany….

so….

bumper day last saturday, winners galore all i can say is i banked just short of a 4 figure sum… particularly the package whom im really chuffed with if i do say so myself… i reckon he is still very well handicapped so the next big pot that comes up expect to see timmy joe`s backside swinging in the air as they turn for home…. side note too… timmy joe has still got it….

anyways, i dont know what it is. but in the last couple of days i have cast my eye over a few things and in particular today i saw the papparrazi kid, spirit of shankley, provo, satou & turnandgo all turned over at prices of 1/4 10/11 1/4 11/4 & 4/9 beaten… infact all second….

now i had a few bets on them… notably the papparrazi kid. nothing major. but i am just pissed off with it all now…

i suppose what my epiphany consists of is i spent a couple of hours every night looking at these horses what could beat them etc etc…. & i couldnt see any of them beat. they all finished second!! seconditis the scourge of any punter and basically a total waste of time. time better spent at other things…

i have no doubt of my talents at punting. none whatsoever. i have an eye for it. particularly chasers over extended distances. i reckon no one of my contemporaries can take a handicap apart like i can and i have every confidence that when i get onto the scent of something it is sure to pay… eventually. i stand over that with planet of sound (infact i stuck a tenor on it last night at 250 to 1 on betfair for the national….) i would look to take anyone on in my judgement of horses and horse racing such is the confidence i have in my abilities and here is where my epiphany comes from….

if i spent 3 hours on average per day over 10 years at something you would be dam good at it too? well i have now realised that there is not much more i can do really at betting. you may argue why not make money… after last saturday and the way results have gone since its not money anymore that motivates me. its being right. this is dangerous territory. im getting out now while im ahead (just).

i dont know when im going to have a bet again. i might have one saturday at cheltenham and i might never have one again. i cant say much more than that. but i will say it irks me that when ppl are quick to question my knowledge and judgement. putting down something i invest a lot of time in. that insults me. it is like saying to the person who waddles their fat arses around a soccer pitch on a saturday playing some mickey mouse game of soccer in some bullshit league why bother you will never play for man united?
well they do it cos the enjoy it and it makes them feel good, it challenges them and its competitive. expressing an opinion on racing does the same for me. i like to take everything apart in a big race, course distance breeding weight ground jockey bookings weight distance travelled strike rates handicap mark blinkers ear plugs whether he has been re shod at the start… i can go on. basically i enjoy it. but recently the enjoyment has gone from me it isnt about me trying to be right it is about me trying to prove someone else wrong. simply it is getting too competitive and as such is affecting my thought process.

it doesnt effect me day to day. im motivated and do well at my job and am progressing very well. it has effected me physically alas some nights i mightnt sleep thinking about racing particularly on a friday night id often spend 2/3 hours during the night checking weather conditions and cloud covering over race tracks. that isnt healthy.

outside of horse racing i have a number of other fires which burn notably my girlfriend whom has had to bear this burden of mine for some time. it isnt fair on her the amount of time i invest in this and combined with work it amounts to 75-80 hours per week. time that could be spent doing other things.

i consider myself to be a footballer (gaelic) still to be of some potential now i accept ill probably never play in croke park unless its with my club which is also v unlikely. but i see my potential as in i dont think i have ever given myself every chance. i have always found an excuse for myself…. its not fair on my club mates and friends i suppose selfishly i have always kept a little for myself like a lazy horse you blindly hope some day his attitude will change and if the humour takes him he will be “well in” i.e. well handicapped. i still remain well handicapped but i need to put the miles in the legs and hours in the gym before im anything of any consequence on a football pitch. i think i want to try to do that now. im 28 next year and for 10 years now i have had an excuse.

im a son, a grandson still, a brother and a cousin to a lot of ppl and again they have not seen the best of me yet. this is also time i could find. that time is being wasted at other things…

i could go on. but basically last saturday i hit the jackpot winners after winners… but it didnt make me happy. it was being right that made me happy. but again its not the right reason and it isnt motivating…

im knocking the gambling on the head not because i have a problem or think i do. i regularly give it up, its just i havent the time anymore to do it properly. its like playing senior football its nice to say you do it but unless you really push yourself you are a passenger, i have been a passenger for on and off 4/5 years now. i dont want to be a passenger at punting as that is a dangerous folly. ill still keep my eye in for results, ill still watch it with a keen eye. ill still talk about it when in company and will be comfortable doing so. i just wont be armed with the knowledge to put my money down. but ill wager ill still probably know more then most that i associate with.

i am on a bus to the lexus on 28th of dec with my amigos from home. i might just peruse the post and the internet for a few hours before that…. then again i might just go on the beer for the day and not watch one race! until my next update ill remain self proclaimed one of the sharpest punters in the ring but more curiously a very well handicapped gaelic footballer and hopefully someone that allocates his time a bit better into things that are more self fulfilling. epiphany indeed. now its ten to nine chilly night im off out for a run get bit of oxygen back into the old brain augers well for a good deep sleep!

saturday 10th of november

right, am twitterless at the moment account locked out again so this is the only social media i am available on at present barring the bland book (facebook) sick of the bullshite on their at present and have been for a good while to be honest, thinking of deleting my ac only thing preventing me is pals in oz and states etc!

hot off the back of tipping up 16/1 melbourne cup winner green moon (didnt get thanked by flymm yet actually) i will endeavour to uncover some #jam tomorrow

anyways…. few selections and some justification…. badger ales is going to be a dam interesting race btw….

sandown
wings of icarus at an ew price is of interest… curious sort this could be a typical pipe handicapper one for the notebook this year perhaps a small ew play tomorrow but there will be a few pots in him over bigger ones methinks

overturn should win but will prob be 1-5

rayadour for my old muckers simon munir (roberto goldback & une artiste fame last saturday) is sure to take all the beating here and is my ew selection… dunno what price he be down as a 7/1 paper price now anyways….

rob conti in the next for hobbs whom i still think will have a big weekend… ew at a price

wincanton
first selection here is houblon des obeaux (see previous blogs) will win some big hcaps thisyear in my opinion and should do beeswax tomorrow at a decent price back it ew sure to be in top 3

two of my fav horses from last year clash then zarkander and prospect wells (who should havewon the supreme in my opinion) preference for the former despite the ruby factor…. but ill see how my day is going before a bet…

then the piece de la resistancè the badger ales

strong words for a few diamond harry, west end rocker& michel le bon who has been well touted for this race… all have great chances but the one im going to plum for at a nice 8/1 is the package whom i think is absolutely weighted to be in the first three at min for which you get 2/1… d a johnson and t j murphy dont rule the roost on saturdays like they used but they can still show the young pretenders how to do things pipe style… 1 run in two years dont be fooled this guy will be fit at home… he hasnt won since december 2009 either… almost three years but this 9 yo has very little on the clock.. 5th offa 147 2 years ago he is in off 139 now… i reckon he could be laid out for this one… but like my good self he has legs made of glass so dont expect to see him turned out again soon… the mere fact that the johnson pipe murphy axis has hung on to him speaks volumes its obviously a workable mark and there may be a few more big days out in him…. 1 run in 2 years reads a worse appearence record then me for gaultier but like my good self, when fit and attitude is right (never ever a given) this fella could be very very well in here top connections wouldnt persevere otherwise (the connections in gaultier have no choice with me alas!)….

lastly i like whos jeff in the bumper…£34,000 purchase…running for a mere 1700 here… i reckon he could be a right ew bet here for hobbs and johnson… with 4 of hobbs 11 bumper runners being placed so he takes them seriously… if i were you i would take this lad seriously too….

lastly to naas…. where i have two words… barry geraghty… operating and jezki… end of.`

sunday in limerick

marysthe boss could be worth a look ew… not that id know anything mind u…